SOCIAL FORECASTING AS MONITORING ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT SOCIETY PROBLEMS

Abstract

Introduction. The effectiveness of forecasting research is assessed through the ability to accurately predict future events, changes or trends based on the analysis of current information. Several aspects are important to achieve high efficiency: data quality: forecasting is based on the analysis of existing data, so the more accurate and up-to-date the data, the more reliable the results will be; forecasting methodology: choosing the right forecasting models and methods (statistical, mathematical, machine learning) is critical to achieving high efficiency. For example, regression, time series, etc. methods can be used; forecast accuracy assessment: in order to assess the effectiveness of the forecast, various metrics are used; uncertainty analysis: forecasting always contains an element of uncertainty, so it is important to consider the probabilities of event development options and their risks; testing and validation: forecasting models should be tested on test data sets or in real conditions to determine their effectiveness in different situations; updating and adaptation: as environmental conditions change or new data are added, forecasts should be regularly revised and adapted to new realities. The effectiveness of forecasting research depends on the correct approach to these aspects and can vary significantly depending on the field of application (economics, medicine, climatology, etc.). In accordance with the unresolved issues, the defined research problem, the purpose of the article is to analyze social forecasting as a means of monitoring current problems of society in the past based on predictions in the future. Based on the purpose of the research, we will define the objectives of the article: 1. To analyze the scientific literature on the problems of social forecasting. 2. To characterize the main approaches and stages of forecasting research. 3. To substantiate the methods of forecasting research and the principles of their implementation. Results. The model is an analogue of the original. It should be similar to the original, but not repeat it, because in this case the modeling itself loses its meaning. Free modeling is also unacceptable; in this case, it does not give the necessary idea of the original model, and also does not fulfill its function. The advantages of modeling are as follows. Modeling allows you to obtain a description of the object being modeled, in particular its complications, improves and clarifies its understanding and represents such an organization of information that ensures easier obtaining of the necessary information. With the help of the model, experimental research can be appropriately set up, and a positive feedback between the model and the experiment is revealed, since additional experiments that have become necessary as a result of a clearer understanding of the essence of the phenomenon lead to a refinement of the model, a deepening of knowledge about this phenomenon, and the setting up of new experiments. In social work, modeling is used as one of the technologies of social work – modeling of social work subjects (systems, services, projects, programs, processes, specialist models); modeling of ways and means of solving problem situations; modeling of positive behavior of an individual in different conditions of social life; directions of modern social work with different target groups and categories of the population.