FORECASTING AS A STRATEGIC INSTRUMENT OF SOCIAL WORK IN THE CONTEXT OF TRANSFORMATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINIAN SOCIETY

Abstract

Introduction. The current stage of Ukraine’s societal development is marked by profound socio-economic transformations, intensified by the consequences of the full-scale war, which has acted as a catalyst for structural changes across all spheres of social life. Amid heightened instability and increased vulnerability among a significant portion of the population, the forecasting of social processes and anticipation of potential outcomes have become particularly important for shaping adaptive and forward-looking social policies at both national and local levels. In this context, it is crucial to ensure that social work institutions are prepared to provide effective support to the population by implementing practical tools of social work aimed at fostering sustainable development of communities and society as a whole. The purpose and objectives of the article is to provide a theoretical reflection on social forecasting as a strategic tool of social work in the context of the transformational development of Ukrainian society, with an emphasis on its significance for shaping adaptive social policy in conditions of war and post-conflict recovery. Research results have demonstrated that the integration of social forecasting into the practice of social policy and social work is a key factor in forming adaptive strategies capable of ensuring the sustainable development of Ukrainian society under conditions of war and post-conflict recovery. It has been established that the effectiveness of forecasting social change directly depends on accounting for the level of civic awareness, individual activity, the ability to master new social roles, as well as the flexibility of social institutions in implementing innovations. It has been proven that these very factors constitute the transformational potential that determines the dynamics of societal development and the direction of state policy. It has been substantiated that social forecasting serves as a strategic tool for adaptive social policy and social work in the context of the transformational development of Ukrainian society during wartime and post-conflict recovery. Forecasting is recognized as a strategic element of the social sphere, which must be integrated into management processes and educational programs for training social work professionals. Well-developed forecasting competence enables a specialist not only to respond promptly to challenges but also to anticipate needs, effectively allocate resources, and plan activities oriented toward achieving a desired future. Research novelty. The transformational potential of society under crisis conditions is characterized by a higher level of individual responsiveness and proactive engagement in addressing social challenges compared to state institutions. The development of civic consciousness, the ability for self-organization, solidarity, national unity, and identity have vividly manifested in Ukraine through the formation of strong horizontal networks, mutual support, and a clear awareness of a shared purpose. These processes are reflected in the implementation of innovative social practices aimed at timely resolution of critical societal issues. The quality of social forecasting under conditions of uncertainty and during periods of intensive change depends significantly on the consideration of society’s transformational potential.