THEORY OF FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND STATISTICS

Abstract

The research is dedicated to the comprehensive study of the theory of financial-economic crises, considering modern approaches to economic analysis and statistical methods. The paper provides an in-depth analysis of key theoretical concepts that reveal the nature of financial-economic crises, as well as the mechanisms of their emergence and development in the context of a globalized economy. Various theories, such as Kondratiev cycles, financial bubble theories, crisis models, and new approaches to analyzing the instability of financial systems, are examined. Special attention in the study is given to the integration of economic analysis with the use of statistical methods that allow for effective forecasting of crisis phenomena and assessing their potential consequences for the economy. Advanced statistical methods are employed, including time series analysis, regression models, econometric techniques, and machine learning methods. The application of these tools enables the identification of the likelihood of economic downturns based on the analysis of historical data and current economic trends. The study also explores the application of economic analysis and statistics for the development of crisis management strategies at the macro level. This includes examining the effectiveness of various anti-crisis measures, such as financial support for businesses, tax incentives, monetary policy, and other macroeconomic interventions. An important aspect is the assessment of the effectiveness of these measures based on statistical data, which allows governments and economists to make informed decisions on policy optimization and minimizing the negative consequences of crises for the national economy. To achieve the research objectives, a comprehensive approach was used, including theoretical analysis to study the main theories of financial-economic crises and their evolution, economic analysis to assess the impact of crises on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, employment, and inflation. Statistical methods, including time series analysis and regression analysis, were applied to forecast crisis phenomena and evaluate their consequences. Additionally, modeling techniques were used to create forecasts of economic downturns and assess the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures. The main findings of the study include the identification of key theoretical concepts of financial-economic crises, financial bubble theories, and financial system instability. The study explores the application of economic analysis to assess the impact of crises on macroeconomic indicators, emphasizing the importance of timely responses to crisis phenomena. The effectiveness of statistical methods, such as time series analysis and regression analysis, in forecasting economic downturns and determining the likelihood of crisis events is demonstrated. Recommendations for governments and businesses on using economic and statistical tools to formulate anti-crisis strategies aimed at minimizing negative consequences are provided. Additionally, the study evaluates the effectiveness of financial aid, tax incentives, and monetary policy as key tools to support economic stability during crises. The conclusions and specific recommendations are based on the integration of theoretical knowledge about financialeconomic crises with practical economic analysis and statistical tools to ensure economic stability during crises. 1. Necessity of a Comprehensive Approach. To effectively forecast and manage crises, it is important to combine theoretical knowledge with practical economic and statistical tools. 2. The Role of Timely Response. A key aspect is the timely identification of potential crisis events using statistical methods, such as time series analysis and regression analysis. 3. Development of Anti-Crisis Strategies. Governments and businesses should actively use statistical tools to develop anti-crisis strategies, particularly to assess risks and forecast crisis events. 4. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Government Measures. Financial aid, tax incentives, and monetary policy should be subject to continuous monitoring and evaluation.