TRUST AS INSTITUTIONAL CAPITAL OF UKRAINE’S INCLUSIVE ECONOMY: FROM SOCIAL EXPECTATIONS TO FINANCIAL BEHAVIOUR
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/inclusive_economics.13-13Keywords:
trust, institutional capital, inclusive economy, financial inclusion, banking system, narrative economics, emotional intelligence, financial behaviour, economic recoveryAbstract
The article conceptualizes trust as institutional capital of an inclusive economy and examines its transformation in Ukraine under wartime conditions. The framework distinguishes a structural core of trust, accumulated through institutional performance, rule stability and repeated experience, from a narrative-emotional shell that reacts more rapidly to salient events, information flows and collective emotions. This distinction combines the social-capital approach with R. Shiller’s narrative economics and evidence on emotion-driven decision making. The historical experience of Ukrainian credit cooperation is used to show how repeated rules, mutual responsibility and local self-organization can support trust-based financial interaction. The empirical part combines repeated surveys of the Razumkov Centre with National Bank of Ukraine data. It identifies a regulatory-intermediary asymmetry: by November 2025 the trust balance for the National Bank of Ukraine was positive, while that for commercial banks remained negative. Household hryvnia deposits are assessed in three dimensions: nominal hryvnia values, U.S. dollar equivalents and real values deflated by the cumulative consumer price index with December 2021 as the base. Between 2021 and 2025 nominal deposits increased by 110.6%, their U.S. dollar equivalent by 35.5%, and their real value by 30.9%. In 2022 and 2024 real growth was only 1.8% and 0.7%, respectively, demonstrating why nominal expansion cannot be interpreted as proportional growth in trust. Emotional intelligence is treated cautiously as a potential micro-level moderator of the conversion of wartime emotional shocks into institutional judgments, not as a substitute for institutional reliability. The results suggest that wartime trust may remain behaviorally resilient while survey judgments are volatile because structural institutional experience and fast-moving narratives operate on different time horizons. The study argues that inclusive recovery requires trustworthy institutions, transparent financial intermediation, consumer protection and monitoring of the depth, maturity and currency structure of financial participation.
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