ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF THE INVOLVEMENT OF DOMESTIC BUSINESS ENTITIES IN UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT BONDS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/inclusive_economics.12-3Keywords:
econometric modeling, financial investments, government bonds, Student's t-test, forecastAbstract
In order to plan the volume of the State Budget of Ukraine's deficit in terms of its coverage by government bonds, the Government of Ukraine requires information on the future behavioral attitudes of enterprise investors in terms of the amounts of money that resident business entities are able to invest in government bonds in the short term. The subject of the study is economic patterns, factors and statistical relationships that determine the level of involvement of domestic business entities (legal entities) in domestic government bonds of Ukraine that are in circulation, at nominal and amortized cost, as well as the features of modeling and forecasting the volume of investments by business entities (legal entities) in government bonds. The study uses econometric methods of time series analysis, which involve statistical processing of dynamic data on the volume of investments of business entities (legal entities) in Ukrainian government bonds and factors affecting their investment activity. The paper presents the use of econometric modeling as a tool for forecasting the involvement of domestic business entities (legal entities) in Ukrainian government bonds. The outlined model is an attempt to forecast the volume of financial investments in relation to quantitative and qualitative factors of influence. The study uses variables that take into account calendar effects (the seasonality factor - winter months, as well as the war factor and random calendar events). The data under study are observations during the time periods of the months of the year, covering the period from January 2021 to October 2025. The developed econometric model will allow us to describe the behavior of domestic business entities regarding their involvement in Ukrainian government bonds and make a retrospective forecast of the volume of investments of enterprises for three months: November, December 2025 and January 2026. The work calculated a point and interval forecast for the next 3 months, November-December 2025, January 2026, which will contribute to the further development of a model for predicting the future behavior of domestic business entities regarding their involvement in Ukrainian government bonds.
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